Bitcoin (BTC) has had a shadow of uncertainty follow it for the past few months as it consolidates around $100,000. Today Bitcoin price today is down No data found for bitcoin on 26 minutes ago% and trades at No data found for bitcoin on 26 minutes ago. As a result, Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) have also dropped No data found for ethereum on 26 minutes ago% and 2.4%, respectively.
One reason for Bitcoin’s recent crash can be attributed to the strong jobs market, which has further decreased the odds of a rate cut in 2025. In the recent FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve slashed the anticipated rate cuts in 2025 from five to two. However, after the recent Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, markets have not been optimistic about rate cuts. As a result of this hawkish outlook, Bitcoin has shown uncertainty over the past few weeks and no directional bias whatsoever.
The second reason for this crash is Bitcoin’s technicals. The rally that began on November 3, 2024, pushed BTC’s value from a low of $67,000 to $100,000 in just 30 days. This sudden uptrend has left many inefficiencies, so technicals indicate that a reversal is likely due to exhaustion and profit-taking.
The third reason is a mix of investor sentiment connected to profit-taking and President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. The exponential rally that began in November 2024 was mainly driven by speculations of Trump’s victory. Hence, these traders are likely to close their positions ahead of the January 20 inauguration ceremony. This speculation of January 20 being a sell-the-news event failed as Bitcoin or crypto markets lacked 2024’s bullish momentum.
From a technical standpoint, key support level where investors could watch for a reversal is $90,804. If price fails to hold this level, then a crash to $89,355, 85,083, & 73,646 levels can be expected.
Hinting at a collapse is Deribit’s Head Lin, who points out that options market shows a 32% probability of “BTC breaking through 100,000 by the end of the month.” Options traders echo this bearish sentiment due to uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin and crypto.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, also added a similar bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Brandt noted BTC was forming a “classic H&S top pattern” and could “complete and trend to target.” The popular trader’s Bitcoin price prediction notes a target of roughly $77,000.
He also added two more narratives that could unfold, where the pattern could “fail with bear trap” or “morph into larger pattern.”
On the other hand, if Bitcoin bounces off the $90,804 support level, it could target the buy-side liquidity resting above the equal highs formed at the $102,810 level. Beyond this, the next critical level is the current ATH of $108,374.
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